India Meteorological Department forecast wet spells over Northwest India from October 14 to 17. During the next 4-5 days, isolated heavy rainfall is expected in Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
The Meteorological Department stated that Southwest Monsoon is in the process of withdrawal and has already withdrawn from various regions. It has withdrawn from most parts of Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and has receded from some parts of Sub-Himalayan West Bengal.
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The entire Gangetic West Bengal and Odisha are now outside the monsoon’s reach. Monsoon has also receded from some parts of North Interior Karnataka and Coastal Andhra Pradesh.
A cyclonic circulation is present over south Tamil Nadu and its neighbouring regions.
A Western Disturbance (WD), taking the form of a trough has formed in the middle tropospheric westerlies. Under its influence, an induced cyclonic circulation is expected to form over central Pakistan and its surroundings in the next 24 hours.
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There is possibility of merger of a fresh WD on October 15 which will be 1st intense WD of this season. It will influence northwest and central India during October 13 to 17. Hence, rainfall intensity and distribution will likely increase over northwest India during same period. Temperatures are also expected to fall by 2-4°C from October 17 over the region.
Weather forecast for the next 5 days are as follows:
South India: Kerala and Mahe can anticipate light to moderate rainfall at some places, with isolated heavy rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning during October 13 to 17. Tamil Nadu state can expect similar weather conditions on October 13, 16 and 17. South Interior Karnataka can expect this on October 16t and 17.
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Northwest India: Jammu-Kashmir-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad to experience light to moderate rainfall at some places, accompanied by isolated thunderstorms and lightning. from October 14 to 16. Moreover, isolated heavy rainfall is expected over the Kashmir-Gilgit Region and Himachal Pradesh on October 16.
Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan can expect light to moderate rainfall along with thunderstorms and lightning on October 15 and 16.
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