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''India is going to witness the formation of a non-BJP govt at the Centre'', says Dr Parakala Prabhakar, political economist, author and Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's husband in an interview with Mathrubhumi.
Excerpts from the interview:
Six phases of the Lok Sabha elections are over. There remains only one more phase on June 1st. Almost 90% of the Indian electorate have exercised their democratic right to choose the next dispensation. What is your assessment about the outcome of this election which is considered to be very crucial for Indian democracy?
My initial estimate was that BJP would get seats between 220 to 230. But after the sixth phase, I have revised it to 200 to 220.
What about NDA altogether?
The allies of the BJP may get 30 to 40 seats. But, there is a rider here. In this particular NDA, not a single party is BJP's ideological ally. All of them are contextual allies. My feeling is that if the BJP doesn't get enough strength some of the allies may switch over to the other side. That means the 30 or 40 seats may not really be in the kitty of BJP. Most of their allies are not in a position to contribute significantly in terms of seats except in states like Bihar and Andhra Pradesh. If BJP is not in a strong position these allies might have second thoughts.
In his interview with the Indian Express Home Minister Amit Shah sounded very confident. He said that the BJP was in a very comfortable position with just five phases over. According to him, the BJP has already crossed 300 seats. How do you look at this?
I had seen the Home Minister's estimate after the third phase itself. 370 seats had gone to the polls by then. He predicted 270 seats for BJP out of this. That means he is expecting a strike rate of 73% which looks absolutely unrealistic. The fact is that political leaders present such estimates basically to enthuse their cadres. It is part of the electioneering. So, we need not take these estimates seriously.
Prashant Kishor, who claims to be a neutral analyst also says that there may not be any significant change in this election. He says that BJP will form the govt with a very comfortable majority. He thinks that BJP will gain more from the South and East which will compensate for their loss in the North and the West. What is your response?
It is not proper for me to comment on another analyst's estimate. My observations are based on my extensive travels, my interactions with various people across the various strata of society, and historical data. I take into consideration the poll performance of the Jan Sangh till 1972 and from 1980 to the present day the performance of the BJP. I have also correlated what kind of an election pitch has yielded what kind of an outcome.
BJP had a vote share of 31% in 2014. But some of this belonged to the allies. If you deduct that then BJP's actual vote share could not have been more than 27 %. Anti-corruption was the major plank on which the BJP fought the election in 2014. In 1998 they got a vote share of 25%. That means between 1998 and 2014 the net addition was 2%. In 2019 the pitch was Pulwama and Balakot. They got a vote share of 37% then. If you deduct the allies' vote share then it would be 33 to 34%. That makes the net addition between in the last 26 years 8%. This came from non-hindutva factors such as anti-corruption, development and national security. Today, the BJP is banking more and more on the Hindutva project as their failures in the economy are more and more visible. Unemployment, price rise, the Chinese occupation of Indian territory and the electoral bonds scam are staring at their faces. That means the BJP may go back to the 25% of vote share, which the Hindutva core can bring in. This is what historical data tells us.
In your interactions with various media persons, you have indicated that the BJP won't gain much from South India. Could you please elaborate?
Let us begin with Kerala. The BJP will be terribly disappointed in your state. They are going to draw a blank.
You are quite sure that BJP will not open its account in Kerala this time too?
Yes. Same case in Tamil Nadu. They may get two seats from Andhra Pradesh. And in Telangana, they may retain the four seats. But they won't have any gains there. They had won 25 out of 28 in Karnataka in the last election. They are going to lose at least 12 seats there. That means their net addition will be two seats while their loss will be 12 seats. So, they will lose 10 seats altogether in the South. If you add to this their loss of 90 seats in the North and West then their total loss will be 100 seats.
That means BJP's strength in the Lok Sabha will come down to 203?
If you consider some marginal errors in the calculation their strength may go up to a maximum of 220. This is my estimate.
You have stated that the allies of the BJP may bring in 30 to 40 seats. So, that makes it clear that the NDA will fall short of absolute majority?
Yes. NDA may get only 260. That is the maximum.
What you are hinting at is that India may see the formation of a non-BJP, non-NDA govt after June 4th?
Absolutely.
The PM is about to arrive at Kanyakumari to meditate at the Vivekananda Rock. He seems confident that he would get a third term to lead India. But, as per your observations, it may be the beginning of his vanaprastha?
I have seen many elections. There is no correlation between a party's or candidate's confidence and victory.
You ended your interview with Karan Thapar with a very grim observation that all dictators' lives have ended either in handcuffs or coffins. You seem to visualise a very dark future for the present PM?
It is like this. This present dispensation will be very reluctant to vacate the seat of power. The moment they are out of power, all the scams starting from the Rafale deal, the PM CARES Fund and Pegasus to the electoral bonds will come after them. Skeletons will start tumbling down the cupboard. That will discredit the entire Hindutva project. They will face a severe setback akin to the one they faced after the assassination of Mahatma Gandhi. Therefore, they will try everything to stay in power. So, the civil society will have to be very alert. BJP may go to any extent to retain power.
Are you apprehensive that India may witness a Capitol riot-like situation where Trump refused to hand over power to the Democrats?
I will not rule that out. If they get about 220, they still will be the largest party in the Loksabha and the President may invite them to form the government giving them ample time. Then that will result in horse-trading. Anything may happen. That is why I am saying that the entire civil society should see to it that such things don't happen. There is a trust deficit as far as the election commission is concerned. We know how the election commission has been soft towards the BJP. They have been functioning as if they are the extension of the executive.
So, it becomes imperative that democratic institutions including the Judiciary must be extremely vigilant to face any eventuality?
Exactly! That's what I feel.
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